I ran 2 million Monte Carlo simulations of the full NFL season to calculate the effect of every game on the playoff and draft position odds for every team. Click on your team to find out which team you should root for in each game this week to maximize your odds for making it to the playoffs or winning your conference. If you’re tanking, you can also see how to strategically root for teams that maximize your odds of getting the first overall draft pick. For details on how the values in this table are calculated, see the Methodology page.
Data is updated every Tuesday.
League Standings
Select your team to see who you should root for this week
Team | Record | Playoff Odds ▼ | Conf Winner | #1 Pick | Top 5 Pick | Predicted Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 0-0 | 85.5% | 25.4% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 11.1 |
 | 0-0 | 85.0% | 24.4% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 11.0 |
 | 0-0 | 82.8% | 24.6% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 10.6 |
 | 0-0 | 78.7% | 16.3% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 10.5 |
 | 0-0 | 69.6% | 13.6% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 9.9 |
 | 0-0 | 69.3% | 13.5% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 10.0 |
 | 0-0 | 62.0% | 7.3% | 0.6% | 5.8% | 9.1 |
 | 0-0 | 60.9% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.2 |
 | 0-0 | 54.9% | 5.5% | 0.5% | 5.0% | 9.2 |
 | 0-0 | 54.2% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.1 |
 | 0-0 | 52.7% | 6.7% | 0.6% | 6.4% | 9.0 |
 | 0-0 | 52.2% | 5.0% | 0.6% | 5.8% | 9.1 |
 | 0-0 | 51.7% | 6.7% | 0.8% | 7.3% | 9.0 |
 | 0-0 | 51.0% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 6.3% | 9.1 |
 | 0-0 | 47.8% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 8.3% | 8.9 |
 | 0-0 | 45.4% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 9.0% | 8.7 |
 | 0-0 | 44.1% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 8.9% | 8.8 |
 | 0-0 | 41.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 9.3% | 8.5 |
 | 0-0 | 36.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 15.1% | 8.1 |
 | 0-0 | 35.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 23.2% | 7.9 |
 | 0-0 | 34.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 14.5% | 8.1 |
 | 0-0 | 33.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 15.3% | 8.3 |
 | 0-0 | 30.1% | 1.2% | 11.0% | 43.4% | 7.8 |
 | 0-0 | 28.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 19.3% | 7.8 |
 | 0-0 | 22.7% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 22.0% | 7.5 |
 | 0-0 | 19.2% | 0.7% | 7.7% | 34.7% | 6.9 |
 | 0-0 | 18.3% | 0.6% | 9.0% | 38.2% | 6.9 |
 | 0-0 | 14.2% | 0.4% | 6.5% | 32.0% | 6.9 |
 | 0-0 | 11.5% | 0.2% | 12.1% | 45.3% | 6.4 |
 | 0-0 | 11.3% | 0.3% | 8.5% | 37.2% | 6.6 |
 | 0-0 | 8.8% | 0.2% | 3.4% | 20.5% | 6.2 |
 | 0-0 | 5.8% | 0.1% | 16.6% | 55.7% | 5.7 |
Column Descriptions:
Rank: Teams ranked by Playoff Odds.
Team: Team name and logo.
Record: Wins-Losses-Ties (Ties are omitted if it’s 0).
ELO: The Elo rating system, originally developed for chess, assigns each team a numerical rating that updates after each game based on the outcome and the opponent’s rating. A win against a higher-rated player yields a larger increase, while losing to a lower-rated player results in a greater decrease. My simulations use Elo to determine win/loss odds for each game.
Playoff Odds: Odds of making the playoffs.
Conference Winner: Odds of winning your conference and securing a first round playoff bye.
#1 Pick: Odds of securing the number one overall pick in the upcoming draft.
Top 5 Pick: Odds of securing a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft.
Projected Wins: This is the average number of wins that your team gets over the 2 million Monte Carlo simulations.